Global warming is driving more and bigger hurricanes. Here’s what we can do.

What if we could slow down the excess heat that is fueling more frequent and violent Atlantic hurricanes? It’s not as crazy as you may think.  

September 2024’s Hurricane Helene was one of the largest ever seen in the Gulf of Mexico, unleashing winds upwards of tropical storm force (39 mph and up) across more than 400 miles, and devastating communities as far inland as North Carolina. It’s just one example of how mounting atmospheric heat is supercharging the hurricane season.

What’s going on: As the climate warms, so do the oceans’ surface waters, since they absorb most of the heat trapped in the atmosphere. According to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the oceans’ top layers have warmed by 1.5° C since 1901.ⁱ

Why does this matter? Because hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. The warmer the water, the more energy available for storms to form and intensify.  

Hurricanes can form when sea surface temperatures are above 26.5°C (80°F). As global warming pushes ocean temperatures beyond this threshold over larger areas and for longer periods, we're essentially expanding the “hurricane nursery.”

What it means: Hurricane seasons are getting longer, and storms are getting bigger, more frequent, and costlier. 

• The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes (Category 4 and 5), have all increased since the early 1980s, says the U.S. government’s National Climate Assessment.
• A 2023 Rowan University study found that hurricane intensification rates – the amount of strength a storm can gather in a given number of hours – were 28.7 percent greater in 2001-2020 than in 1970-1990.
• As of August 2023, the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that of all the billion-dollar-plus weather disasters since 1980, hurricanes were the costliest, clocking in at an average of $22.8 billion per event and $1.3 trillion combined. They also killed more people than any other weather event, with almost 7,000 dead in the same time frame.

What we can do: We will have to invest in building resilience. For instance, we can strengthen infrastructure with coastal ecosystem restoration projects, elevated buildings, better drainage, and electric microgrids. Evacuation plans, pre-positioned emergency supplies and clear communication can help protect communities.  

But there is only so much that investing in resilience can accomplish. Addressing the symptoms does not fix the underlying cause of ever-strengthening hurricane seasons.  

What if we could address the root cause, rising air and water temperatures in the near term?

About near-term heat reduction: The newest climate science shows that it is possible to lower the excess heat that is driving extreme weather phenomena like hurricanes run amuck. 

• In the long run, reducing CO2 emissions to net zero is the best way to lower the atmosphere’s temperature. But that takes time – decades at best.
• In the short run, roughly half of manmade global warming is not caused by CO2, but by powerful climate super pollutants, including methane, black carbon, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Because they are short-lived (methane and HFCs dissipate within 10-20 years, black carbon in just days), rapid, large-scale emissions cuts would begin to yield results within years, not decades.  
• Climate super pollutant cuts can also make up for the effects of reductions in emissions of sulfate and nitrate aerosols by oceangoing ships. These sulfates cool the atmosphere because they scatter and reflect sunlight, but they have been phased out because they are detrimental to human health and the environment.
• Meanwhile, we can take actions to protect the oceans’ albedo (their heat reflectivity). For instance, smart routing of sea traffic and reducing the use of icebreakers can help maintain highly reflective polar ice that plays a key part if regulating the oceans’ temperatures.
• Protecting marine ecosystems can help maintain phytoplankton populations. This is important for ocean albedo, because phytoplankton metabolism releases gases that promote cloud formation, and clouds reflect the sun’s heat into space.    

Bottom line: There is no silver bullet. We can’t just “turn down the heat” on hurricanes. But we are not powerless, and it doesn’t have to take decades. With every tenth of a degree of avoided global warming, we can save lives and avoid massive amounts of economic damage and human suffering.    

Learn more about the science of heat reduction.